Ecommerce Returns Trends: 7 Signals to Watch in 20262026 年电商退货趋势：值得关注的 7 个信号

These are market signals, not universal forecasts for an individual store. The 2025 National Retail Federation and Happy Returns study estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned, but category mix, price, policy, channel, customer mix, season and return-window maturity can move a merchant far from that estimate. Use the broad ecommerce returns analytics framework for the full diagnostic process and this page for time-sensitive signals.

这些属于市场信号，并不是对单个商家的通用预测。美国零售联合会与 Happy Returns 的2025 年研究估计线上销售退货比例为 19.3%，但品类结构、价格、政策、渠道、客群、季节和退货窗口成熟度都会让单个商家的结果显著偏离该估计。完整诊断流程见电商退货分析框架，本页专门承接时效性趋势信号。

How to read ecommerce returns statistics without overclaiming如何阅读电商退货统计而不过度推断

A trend needs a direction observed across comparable periods. A market level in one year is context, not proof of an increase. This brief therefore labels the source population and treats cross-source comparisons as supporting context rather than a clean time series. Merchant-owned cohorts remain the decision evidence.

趋势需要在可比期间中观察到方向。某一年的市场水平只能提供背景，并不能证明“正在增长”。因此，本简报会标明来源人群，不把不同来源的数字拼成伪时间序列；商家自己的可比批次才是决策证据。

Seven ecommerce returns trends and the signal to monitor七大电商退货趋势及对应监测信号

1. Online returns remain a structural margin exposure1. 线上退货仍是结构性的利润敞口

NRF and Happy Returns projected $849.9 billion in total U.S. retail returns for 2025 and estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned. Separately, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that second-quarter 2026 ecommerce sales grew 12.2% year over year, versus 6.7% for total retail sales. Census measures sales, not returns; the defensible inference is that a faster-growing ecommerce base can increase operational exposure even if a merchant's return rate is unchanged.

NRF 与 Happy Returns 预计 2025 年美国零售退货总额为 8,499 亿美元，并估计线上销售退货比例为 19.3%。另外，美国人口普查局报告 2026 年第二季度电商销售额同比增长 12.2%，而零售总额同比增长 6.7%。人口普查局衡量的是销售而非退货；稳妥的推断是：即使商家自身退货率不变，更快增长的电商基数也可能扩大运营敞口。

Verify: compare closed monthly or weekly order cohorts using the same eligibility rule and return window. Track both returned units and refunded value; a stable unit rate can still hide a worsening value mix.

验证方法：使用相同纳入口径和退货窗口比较已关闭的月度或周度订单批次，同时跟踪退货件数和退款金额；件数率稳定仍可能掩盖金额结构恶化。

2–3. Return policy is a conversion lever—and a cost control2–3. 退货政策既影响转化，也控制成本

The 2025 NRF study reported that 82% of consumers consider free returns important when shopping online. DHL's 2025 survey of 24,000 recent online shoppers across 24 markets found that 79% globally—and 71% in its U.S. sample—would abandon a cart if the preferred return option were unavailable. These are stated preferences, not measured conversion experiments, but they show why blanket restrictions can create acquisition risk.

NRF 的 2025 年研究显示，82% 消费者在线购物时会重视免费退货。DHL 在 24 个市场调查了 24,000 名近期网购者，其中全球 79%、美国样本 71% 表示，如果没有偏好的退货方式，他们会放弃购物车。这些是表达性偏好，并非真实转化实验，但它们说明全面收紧政策可能带来获客风险。

At the same time, convenience is not synonymous with one policy for everyone. A 2026 Riskified-commissioned survey of 2,091 consumers across seven countries reported that 52% supported stricter return policies and 56% preferred personalized or tiered policies. The sample was 51.41% U.S.-based, but it was not a nationally representative U.S. benchmark. Treat tailored policies as a testable operating design—not permission for opaque or discriminatory rules.

与此同时，便利并不等于对所有人使用同一种政策。Riskified 委托开展的 2026 年调查覆盖 7 个国家的 2,091 名消费者，其中 52% 支持更严格的退货政策，56% 偏好个性化或分层政策。样本中 51.41% 来自美国，但它不是美国全国代表性基准。应把分层政策视为可测试的运营设计，而不是实施不透明或歧视性规则的理由。

4. AI-assisted claims change review workload, not the evidence standard4. AI 辅助申请改变审核负荷，但不改变证据标准

NRF's 2025 report estimated that 9% of returns were fraudulent and found that 45% of shoppers considered some rule-bending acceptable. In June 2026, the Riskified-commissioned study reported that 50% of respondents had used generative AI to help draft a return or refund claim. The studies use different populations and definitions, so their percentages should not be added or treated as one trend line.

NRF 的 2025 年报告估计 9% 的退货涉及欺诈，并发现 45% 的消费者认为某些“变通规则”可以接受。2026 年 6 月，Riskified 委托的调查显示，50% 受访者曾使用生成式 AI 辅助撰写退货或退款申请。两项研究的人群与定义不同，因此不能把这些百分比相加，也不能拼成同一条趋势线。

Using AI is not proof of fraud. It can produce clearer legitimate claims as well as more persuasive abusive ones. Review systems should rely on order history, policy exposure, identity consistency, carrier events, item inspection and documented exceptions. A text classifier alone is not enough for an adverse customer decision; define an appeal route and preserve human review for high-impact cases.

使用 AI 并不等于欺诈。它既可能帮助合法用户更清楚地表达，也可能让滥用申请更有说服力。审核系统应结合订单历史、政策曝光、身份一致性、承运商事件、商品质检与已记录的例外。仅靠文本分类器不足以作出对客户不利的决定；高影响案例必须保留申诉路径与人工审核。

5. Bracketing is a segment pattern, not a universal customer label5. 多买多退是客群模式，不是通用客户标签

Bracketing means buying multiple sizes, colors or versions with the intention of returning most of them. Happy Returns' summary of the 2025 NRF research reported that 51% of Gen Z shoppers bracket purchases, compared with 24% of Baby Boomers. Riskified's 2026 study separately found that 42% of respondents considered bracketing acceptable. Because these questions differ, use them as signs that behavior varies—not as interchangeable prevalence estimates.

“多买多退”指有意一次购买多个尺码、颜色或版本，再退回其中大部分。Happy Returns 对 2025 年 NRF 研究的摘要显示，51% 的 Z 世代消费者存在这种行为，而婴儿潮一代为 24%。Riskified 的 2026 年研究则发现，42% 受访者认为这种做法可以接受。由于问题设置不同，应把它们视为行为存在差异的信号，而不能当作可互换的发生率。

Detect it at order-item level: repeated SKU family, multiple adjacent sizes or colors, retained quantity and eventual return timing. Then separate intentional choice-shopping from fit problems caused by inconsistent sizing. The useful response may be a comparison aid or size-data repair rather than a fee.

应在订单行粒度识别：同一 SKU 家族、多个相邻尺码或颜色、最终留存数量和退货时间。随后区分有意的试选式购物与尺码不一致造成的适配问题。有效措施可能是提供对比工具或修复尺码数据，而不一定是收费。

6. Out-of-home and label-free returns move from perk to operating choice6. 线下投递点与无标签退货从附加服务变成运营选择

DHL's 2025 shopper survey found that 56% of U.S. respondents preferred returning through a parcel shop, 16% through a parcel locker and 29% through home collection; the published values total 101% because of rounding. The same study found 24% of U.S. respondents preferred a QR code at drop-off rather than an included or home-printed label. NRF and Happy Returns separately reported strong preference for box-free, label-free returns with immediate refunds.

DHL 的 2025 年消费者调查显示，美国受访者中 56% 偏好在包裹服务点退货，16% 偏好包裹柜，29% 偏好上门取件；由于四舍五入，公布值合计为 101%。同一研究中，24% 美国受访者偏好在投递点扫描二维码，而不是使用随包标签或自行打印标签。NRF 与 Happy Returns 的另一项研究也显示消费者强烈偏好免包装、免标签和即时退款。

Preference does not prove lower cost or faster processing. Compare method-level initiation, drop-off completion, transit time, receipt time, refund time, support contacts, carrier cost, consolidation and sellable recovery. A faster refund can improve experience while increasing loss if inspection or identity controls are weak.

偏好并不能证明成本更低或处理更快。应按退货方式比较发起、实际投递、运输、收货、退款时长、客服联系、承运成本、合包效率和可售回收。更快退款可能改善体验，但若质检或身份控制薄弱，也可能扩大损失。

7. Returns teams are moving downstream to recovery and upstream to prevention7. 退货团队同时向下游回收与上游预防延伸

A completed refund is not the end of the economic event. Returned inventory can wait for inspection, miss a selling season, require refurbishment or become unsellable. Happy Returns reported that 60% of surveyed retailers had faced a choice between shipping new orders and processing returns, while 68% prioritized upgrading returns capabilities in the following six months. These figures indicate capacity pressure; they do not show that a particular technology will solve it.

退款完成并不代表经济事件结束。退回库存可能等待质检、错过销售季、需要翻新，或变成不可销售商品。Happy Returns 报告称，60% 受访零售商曾在发出新订单与处理退货之间作出取舍，68% 计划在未来六个月优先升级退货能力。这些数字说明存在产能压力，但不能证明某项技术一定能够解决问题。

Prevention also moves earlier in the journey. DHL found that wrong size was a return reason for 54% of global respondents and that 78% were open to virtual try-on. A merchant should still validate by SKU and reason: a sizing intervention is irrelevant when the dominant issue is damage, late delivery or product quality. Connect the trend view with return reason analysis, reverse logistics costs and the returns-reduction workflow.

预防也在向购买前移动。DHL 发现 54% 的全球受访者曾因尺码错误退货，78% 愿意尝试虚拟试穿。但商家仍需按 SKU 和原因核验：如果主要问题是破损、延迟送达或质量，尺码干预就没有针对性。可将趋势视图与退货原因分析、逆向物流成本及降低退货流程连接起来。

Build an ecommerce returns trend monitor in five steps用五个步骤建立电商退货趋势监测

1. Freeze the metric contract.冻结指标口径。 Declare event, numerator, denominator, exclusions, currency, return window and cohort eligibility before comparing periods.比较前声明事件、分子、分母、排除项、币种、退货窗口和批次资格。
2. Wait for maturity.等待批次成熟。 Do not compare a new cohort with an older one when the new orders have had fewer days to return.如果新订单拥有的退货天数更少，就不要直接与旧批次比较。
3. Segment before explaining.解释前先分层。 Break change down by SKU, category, channel, policy, shopper cohort, reason, return method and disposition.按 SKU、品类、渠道、政策、客群、原因、退货方式和处置结果拆解变化。
4. Pair rate with economics.把比例与经济结果配对。 Review volume, refund value, cost per return, refund time, sellable recovery and return-adjusted contribution together.同时复盘退货量、退款金额、单次退货成本、退款时长、可售回收和退货调整后贡献利润。
5. Log the decision and result.记录决策与结果。 Name the owner, hypothesis, intervention, start date, comparison group, guardrail and review date.记录责任人、假设、措施、开始日期、对照组、保护指标和复盘日期。

Use Return Compass to organize a trend investigation用逆向罗盘组织趋势调查

Prepare sanitized order-item, return-event, refund, reason, cost and disposition files. State one question—such as whether a mature cohort's return-adjusted margin worsened after a policy change—and keep the formula and exclusions with the file. Confirm the tool's current file, login, pricing, retention and security requirements before use.

准备脱敏后的订单行、退货事件、退款、原因、成本和处置文件。先提出一个问题，例如“某项政策变化后，成熟批次的退货调整后利润是否恶化”，并把公式与排除项和文件放在一起。使用前核验工具当前的文件、登录、收费、留存与安全要求。

Download the returns trend cohort starter下载退货趋势群组起始模板

Sources, observation dates, and limitations来源、观察日期与限制

Evidence was frozen on September 15, 2026. Market surveys describe populations, not a specific merchant's result. Vendor-sponsored research is retained when its sample and method are disclosed, but commercial interest is noted. No statistic below is presented as an InfiniSynapse customer outcome.

证据冻结于 2026 年 9 月 15 日。市场调查描述的是样本人群，并非某个商家的结果。厂商资助的研究只有在披露样本和方法时才会保留，同时明确其商业利益。下列统计均不作为 InfiniSynapse 客户成果。

• National Retail Federation — 2025 Retail Returns Landscape美国零售联合会——2025 年零售退货报告 — U.S. consumer and retailer context; published October 15, 2025.——美国消费者与零售商背景；发布于 2025 年 10 月 15 日。
• Happy Returns — NRF report summaryHappy Returns——NRF 报告摘要 — commissioned partner summary with shopper and retailer findings.——合作方发布的消费者与零售商研究摘要。
• U.S. Census Bureau — Q2 2026 Retail E-Commerce Sales美国人口普查局——2026 年第二季度零售电商销售 — official sales series; released August 18, 2026; does not measure returns.——官方销售时间序列；发布于 2026 年 8 月 18 日；不衡量退货。
• DHL — 2025 Returns LandscapeDHL——2025 年退货趋势 — 24,000 recent online shoppers across 24 countries, surveyed February–March 2025.——2025 年 2–3 月调查 24 个国家的 24,000 名近期网购者。
• Riskified — Rewriting the Rules on ReturnsRiskified——重写退货规则 — commissioned 2026 survey of 2,091 consumers in seven markets plus 10 retail-leader interviews.——2026 年委托调查，覆盖 7 个市场的 2,091 名消费者，并访谈 10 名零售业管理者。
• NIST SP 800-122 — Protecting personally identifiable informationNIST SP 800-122——保护个人身份信息 — data-minimization and privacy handling reference.——数据最小化与隐私处理参考。

Frequently asked questions常见问题

Turn one trend into one reviewable decision把一个趋势转化为一个可复核决策

Choose the signal most material to margin or customer experience, define one stable cohort comparison, expose missing fields and name the owner. External research should shape the question; your reconciled return, refund, cost and disposition records should decide the action. Recheck this page after the next major NRF or primary 2026 returns release.

选择对利润或客户体验影响最大的一个信号，定义一次稳定的批次比较，公开缺失字段并指定责任人。外部研究负责帮助提出问题；真正决定行动的应是已经对账的退货、退款、成本和处置记录。下一份重要 NRF 或 2026 年一手退货报告发布后，应重新核验本页。