Open a valuation work order, not a target-price machine打开一张估值工单，而不是目标价机器
To value a stock with discounted cash flow, fix the valuation date, currency, and whether the model values enterprise or equity. This page uses free cash flow to the firm (FCFF): forecast operations before financing, discount at weighted average cost of capital (WACC), and obtain enterprise value. Adjust for identified non-operating claims and assets—here, debt less eligible cash—to reach equity value, then divide by diluted shares. Normalize the base without erasing recurring costs, forecast revenue, margin and reinvestment together, calculate stable-state terminal value, and expose sensitivity. The result is conditional, not precise truth or a live market-price statement.
使用贴现现金流给股票估值时，首先锁定估值日期、币种，以及模型要计算企业整体价值还是仅计算股权价值。本页只使用企业自由现金流 FCFF：预测融资前经营结果，以加权平均资本成本 WACC 折现，先得到企业价值；再单独加减非经营资产与请求权——本例为债务减符合条件的现金——得到股权价值，最后除以稀释后股数。起点正常化不能删除会反复发生的真实经济成本；收入、利润率与再投资必须一起预测；终值必须对应稳定状态；结果还要展示敏感度。因此，最终数值是依赖假设的区间，不是精确真值，也不是对实时市场价格的陈述。
Work-order header: fix the date, claim, and units工单抬头：锁定日期、价值对象与单位
| Required field | Completed BuildSure entry | Why it controls the model |
|---|---|---|
| Entity | BuildSure Inspections, fictional | No real issuer or security is represented |
| Valuation date | 31 December 20X6 | Cash, debt, shares, and forecast start must align |
| Currency and units | USD millions except per-share amounts | Prevents million-versus-unit errors |
| Cash-flow claim | FCFF before interest and net borrowing | Belongs to debt and equity capital providers |
| Value produced first | Enterprise value | FCFF must not be divided directly by shares |
| Timing convention | Year-end cash flows | Year 1 is discounted for one full period |
| Forecast horizon | Five years plus terminal value | Makes the stable-state handoff visible |
| 必填字段 | BuildSure 已填内容 | 为何会控制模型 |
|---|---|---|
| 主体 | 虚构的 BuildSure Inspections | 不代表任何真实发行人或证券 |
| 估值日 | 20X6 年 12 月 31 日 | 现金、债务、股数与预测起点必须对齐 |
| 币种与单位 | 除每股金额外均为百万美元 | 避免百万与单个单位混淆 |
| 现金流请求权 | 利息与净借款前 FCFF | 同时归属于债务与股权资本提供者 |
| 首先得到的价值 | 企业价值 | FCFF 不能直接除以股数 |
| 时点约定 | 年末现金流 | 第一年按一个完整期间折现 |
| 预测长度 | 五年显性期加终值 | 让稳定状态衔接保持可见 |
BuildSure is an invented provider of building-safety inspection software and field services. Subscriptions schedule inspections and preserve audit trails; technicians perform site checks. Every amount, rate, and share count is illustrative. The exercise values operations on one fictional date and states no current stock price or real-company fact.
BuildSure 是虚构的建筑安全检查软件与现场服务提供商。订阅软件负责安排检查并保存审计轨迹，技术人员执行复杂现场检测。下文所有财务金额、资本项目、比率与股数都是教学输入；练习只对一个虚构日期的经营业务估值，不提供任何实时股价、真实公司预测或事实。
FCFF = EBIT × (1 − cash tax rate) + depreciation and amortization − capital expenditure − increase in operating net working capital. Because interest is excluded, discount FCFF at WACC and bridge enterprise value to equity afterward. Do not switch to an equity discount rate midway.
请求权匹配规则FCFF = EBIT ×（1 − 现金税率）+ 折旧摊销 − 资本开支 − 经营性净营运资本增加额。由于公式排除了利息，应使用 WACC 折现，并在之后把企业价值桥接至股权价值；不能在模型中途改用股权折现率。
Receiving inspection: normalize the base without cleaning away costs收件检验：正常化起点，但不能把成本“清洗”掉
| 20X6 starting record | Reported | Adjustment | Normalized or model treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 100.0 | None | 100.0 base; 60 software / 40 services |
| EBIT | 12.0 | +2.0 relocation charge | 14.0 normalized EBIT |
| Depreciation and amortization | 3.2 | None | Forecast explicitly |
| Capital expenditure | 4.5 | None | Forecast explicit maintenance and growth needs together |
| Operating net working capital | 9.0 ending balance | None | Forecast annual change, not the balance |
| Debt / eligible cash | 35.0 / 8.0 | None | Valuation-date bridge items |
| Diluted shares | 20.5 million | Includes assumed in-the-money awards | Per-share denominator at valuation date |
| 20X6 起始记录 | 已报金额 | 调整 | 正常化或模型处理 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 收入 | 100.0 | 无 | 基期 100.0；软件 60 / 服务 40 |
| EBIT | 12.0 | 加回 2.0 搬迁费 | 正常化 EBIT 14.0 |
| 折旧摊销 | 3.2 | 无 | 单独预测 |
| 资本开支 | 4.5 | 无 | 维护与增长需求合并明确预测 |
| 经营性净营运资本 | 期末余额 9.0 | 无 | 预测年度变化额，而不是余额 |
| 债务 / 合格现金 | 35.0 / 8.0 | 无 | 估值日桥接项目 |
| 稀释后股数 | 2,050 万股 | 包含假设价内奖励 | 估值日每股分母 |
Fictional reported inputs are revenue, EBIT, and balance-sheet items. Adding back the 2.0 relocation charge assumes it will not recur or conceal ordinary occupancy cost. Keep 12.0 reported and 14.0 normalized EBIT visible. Repeated relocation or restructuring defeats the add-back. Share compensation, ordinary development, and technician training remain economic costs.
这份虚构资料包中的已报事实是收入、EBIT 与资产负债表输入。加回 2.0 搬迁费属于分析调整，依赖“该事项不重复且没有掩盖正常场地成本”的假设。工单必须同时保留已报 EBIT 12.0 与正常化 EBIT 14.0；如果搬迁或重组经常发生，加回就失效。股份支付、正常产品开发与技术人员培训不能只因让模型变复杂就被删除。
- Fact: copy dated reported lines, accounting policies, debt, cash restrictions, and share instruments.
- Calculation: show every adjustment and retain the reported-to-normalized bridge.
- Assumption: explain recurrence, tax treatment, cash eligibility, and dilution method.
- Judgment: decide whether the normalized base represents repeatable operations.
- Missing evidence: flag lease commitments, capitalized development, customer churn, or award terms rather than guessing.
- 事实：复制带日期的已报项目、会计政策、债务、现金限制与股份工具。
- 计算：展示每项调整，保留从已报到正常化的桥。
- 假设：解释重复性、税务处理、现金资格与稀释方法。
- 判断：决定正常化起点是否代表可重复经营。
- 缺失证据：租赁承诺、资本化开发、客户流失或奖励条款缺失时应标记，不能猜测。
Production schedule: make growth consume capital生产排程：让增长真实消耗资本
The forecast is assumed, not guidance. Growth slows as software matures; EBIT margin rises with subscription scale but field services limit it. Depreciation, capex, and working capital remain separate so margin expansion cannot create costless cash. Calculations use shown precision.
预测是一组假设，不是管理层指引。随着软件客户基础成熟，收入增速逐步放缓；订阅规模效应推动 EBIT 利润率上升，但现场服务限制上限。折旧摊销、资本开支与营运资本分别预测，避免利润率扩张凭空产生无需投入的现金。表中金额使用所示精度计算。
| USDm | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 112.0 | 124.3 | 136.7 | 147.6 | 156.5 |
| Revenue growth | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% |
| EBIT margin | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| EBIT | 16.800 | 19.888 | 23.239 | 25.830 | 28.170 |
| NOPAT at 25% | 12.600 | 14.916 | 17.429 | 19.373 | 21.128 |
| D&A | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Capital expenditure | (5.0) | (5.5) | (6.0) | (6.3) | (6.5) |
| Increase in operating NWC | (1.2) | (1.0) | (0.9) | (0.7) | (0.6) |
| FCFF | 9.900 | 12.216 | 14.629 | 16.773 | 18.728 |
| 百万美元 | 第 1 年 | 第 2 年 | 第 3 年 | 第 4 年 | 第 5 年 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 收入 | 112.0 | 124.3 | 136.7 | 147.6 | 156.5 |
| 收入增长 | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% |
| EBIT 利润率 | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| EBIT | 16.800 | 19.888 | 23.239 | 25.830 | 28.170 |
| 按 25% 税率计算的 NOPAT | 12.600 | 14.916 | 17.429 | 19.373 | 21.128 |
| 折旧摊销 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| 资本开支 | (5.0) | (5.5) | (6.0) | (6.3) | (6.5) |
| 经营性净营运资本增加 | (1.2) | (1.0) | (0.9) | (0.7) | (0.6) |
| FCFF | 9.900 | 12.216 | 14.629 | 16.773 | 18.728 |
EBIT = 136.7 × 17% = 23.239. NOPAT = 23.239 × 75% = 17.429. FCFF = 17.429 + 4.1 − 6.0 − 0.9 = 14.629. A working-capital increase is a cash use and therefore enters with a minus sign.
复算第 3 年EBIT = 136.7 × 17% = 23.239；NOPAT = 23.239 × 75% = 17.429；FCFF = 17.429 + 4.1 − 6.0 − 0.9 = 14.629。营运资本增加会吸收现金，因此使用负号。
Discount bay: bring every future dollar back to the ticket date折现工位：把每一笔未来现金带回估值日
This work order assumes WACC of 9.0%, a perpetual growth rate of 3.0%, and year-end timing. WACC is an analytical estimate of the blended required return for debt and equity consistent with FCFF. The stable growth rate must remain below WACC in the Gordon formula and should be defensible against the currency’s long-run economic conditions. Neither input is an accounting fact.
本工单假设 WACC 为 9.0%、永续增长率为 3.0%，现金流发生在每年年末。WACC 是与 FCFF 匹配的债权人与股东综合必要回报估计。使用戈登公式时，稳定增长率必须低于 WACC，并应与该币种长期经济环境相容。两项输入都不是会计事实。
| Present-value line | Formula | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Discount factor in year t | 1 ÷ (1 + 9%)^t | 0.9174 to 0.6499 for years 1–5 |
| PV of explicit FCFF | Σ FCFFt ÷ (1 + WACC)^t | 54.71 |
| Year 6 FCFF | 18.7275 × (1 + 3%) | 19.2893 |
| Terminal value at end of Year 5 | 19.2893 ÷ (9% − 3%) | 321.49 |
| PV of terminal value | 321.49 ÷ 1.09^5 | 208.95 |
| Enterprise value | 54.71 + 208.95 | 263.66 |
| 现值项目 | 公式 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|
| 第 t 年折现因子 | 1 ÷（1 + 9%）^t | 第 1–5 年为 0.9174 至 0.6499 |
| 显性期 FCFF 现值 | Σ FCFFt ÷（1 + WACC）^t | 54.71 |
| 第 6 年 FCFF | 18.7275 ×（1 + 3%） | 19.2893 |
| 第 5 年末终值 | 19.2893 ÷（9% − 3%） | 321.49 |
| 终值现值 | 321.49 ÷ 1.09^5 | 208.95 |
| 企业价值 | 54.71 + 208.95 | 263.66 |
Terminal value is about 79% of enterprise value (208.95 ÷ 263.66). That is a concentration warning, not an arithmetic error. Year 5 should resemble a stable business: growth, margin, tax, reinvestment, and return on incremental capital must agree. A 3% perpetuity paired with shrinking reinvestment cannot be accepted merely because the spreadsheet closes.
终值约占企业价值的 79%（208.95 ÷ 263.66）。这是一项集中度警报，不必然是算术错误。第五年应接近稳定状态：增长、利润率、税率、再投资与增量资本回报必须彼此一致。不能只因为表格算平，就接受“永久增长 3% 却几乎不再投资”的组合。
Final inspection: cross the enterprise-to-equity bridge终检：穿过企业价值到股权价值之桥
| Bridge at 31 Dec 20X6 | USDm except per share | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise value | 263.66 | DCF calculation |
| Less interest-bearing debt | (35.00) | Fictional dated input |
| Add eligible cash | 8.00 | Fictional dated input; assumed unrestricted and excess |
| Equity value | 236.66 | 263.66 − 35 + 8 |
| Diluted shares | 20.50 million | Fictional valuation-date denominator |
| Indicated value per diluted share | 11.54 | 236.66 ÷ 20.50 |
| 20X6-12-31 桥接 | 除每股外为百万美元 | 分类 |
|---|---|---|
| 企业价值 | 263.66 | DCF 计算 |
| 减：有息债务 | (35.00) | 虚构估值日输入 |
| 加：合格现金 | 8.00 | 虚构估值日输入；假设无限制且属于多余现金 |
| 股权价值 | 236.66 | 263.66 − 35 + 8 |
| 稀释后股数 | 2,050 万股 | 虚构估值日分母 |
| 每股指示价值 | 11.54 | 236.66 ÷ 20.50 |
The bridge must be dated because debt, cash, options, convertibles, noncontrolling interests, pensions, and investments can change. Cash required for operations or restricted for customers may not be fully deductible. Dilution should reflect relevant potential shares consistently; if awards are handled with proceeds or option-value methods elsewhere, do not count them twice. BuildSure assumes no noncontrolling interest, pension deficit, preferred stock, or separate non-operating investment.
桥接必须带日期，因为债务、现金、期权、可转债、非控制性权益、养老金与投资都会变化。维持运营所需现金或受客户限制的资金可能不能全额抵扣。潜在股份应采用一致方法反映；若其他位置已经用行权所得或期权价值处理奖励，不能再次计入。BuildSure 简化假设不存在非控制性权益、养老金缺口、优先股或独立非经营投资。
| Per-share sensitivity | g = 2% | g = 3% | g = 4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC 8% | 12.00 | 14.24 | 17.60 |
| WACC 9% | 10.00 | 11.54 | 13.70 |
| WACC 10% | 8.51 | 9.62 | 11.11 |
| 每股敏感度 | g = 2% | g = 3% | g = 4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC 8% | 12.00 | 14.24 | 17.60 |
| WACC 9% | 10.00 | 11.54 | 13.70 |
| WACC 10% | 8.51 | 9.62 | 11.11 |
Assume, only for this exercise, a market equity value of 230 at the same date. Adding net debt of 27 gives enterprise value 257. After subtracting explicit FCFF PV of 54.71, the terminal-value PV is 202.29, or 311.25 at Year 5. Holding WACC and Year 5 FCFF fixed, the implied perpetual growth solves g = (TV × WACC − FCFF5) ÷ (TV + FCFF5) = about 2.82%. This diagnoses expectations; it does not validate them.
反向 DCF：询问一个虚构价格隐含什么仅为本练习，假设同一日期的市场股权价值为 230。加上净债务 27，企业价值为 257；减去显性期 FCFF 现值 54.71 后，终值现值为 202.29，对应第五年末约 311.25。在 WACC 与第五年 FCFF 不变时，隐含永续增速满足 g =（TV × WACC − FCFF5）÷（TV + FCFF5）≈ 2.82%。反向 DCF 用于诊断预期，并不能证明预期合理。
Close the work order with failure conditions用失效条件关闭估值工单
FCFF becomes unsuitable if financing is inseparable from operations, the company lacks a credible path to positive operating cash economics, or the entity boundary changes materially.
模型失效若融资无法与经营分离、公司缺乏通向正向经营现金经济性的可信路径，或主体边界发生重大变化，FCFF 模型可能不再合适。
Reset the schedule if customer retention, service capacity, pricing, margin, tax, capex, or working-capital evidence leaves the documented range.
预测失效若客户留存、服务产能、定价、利润率、税率、资本开支或营运资本证据越过已记录范围，应重置预测。
Refresh value per share after material borrowing, cash restrictions, acquisitions, divestitures, option grants, conversion, repurchases, or issuance.
桥接失效重大借款、现金限制、并购、处置、期权授予、转换、回购或发行发生后，应刷新每股价值。
The signed conclusion is deliberately bounded: “Under the stated five-year FCFF assumptions, 9% WACC, 3% terminal growth, net debt of 27, and 20.5 million diluted shares at 31 December 20X6, the indicated value is 11.54 per share; the displayed sensitivity is 8.51–17.60.” It is a reproducible conditional result, not a claim that the stock should trade there.
签署结论必须带边界：“在明示五年 FCFF 假设、9% WACC、3% 永续增长、20X6 年 12 月 31 日净债务 27 与稀释股数 2,050 万股的条件下，每股指示价值为 11.54，表内敏感度范围为 8.51–17.60。”这是一项可复算的条件结果，不代表股票应该交易在该价格。
Assemble a source-linked DCF work order from uploaded files从上传资料组装带来源链接的 DCF 工单
Upload several annual and interim statements, revenue and segment notes, tax reconciliation, cash-flow and capex detail, debt maturities, leases, restricted-cash disclosures, acquisitions, share-based awards, convertibles, repurchases, and the basic/diluted share reconciliation. Ask InfiniSynapse Stock Explained to preserve dates, currencies, units, source pages, reported-versus-adjusted status, and formulas while building a single FCFF model.
Treat extracted data and model output as a draft. Return to the uploaded originals to verify every number, sign, period, adjustment, debt and cash classification, potential share, and citation; independently reperform FCFF, discount factors, terminal value, enterprise-to-equity bridge, sensitivity, and reverse DCF. AI may mix FCFE with FCFF, use a balance instead of a working-capital change, mis-time cash flows, or double-count dilution. Missing evidence must stay missing rather than become a silent assumption.
上传多个年度与中期报表、收入和分部附注、税率调节、现金流与资本开支明细、债务到期、租赁、受限现金、并购、股份奖励、可转债、回购，以及基本与稀释股数调节。可要求 InfiniSynapse“一眼看懂这只股票”在构建单一 FCFF 模型时保留日期、币种、单位、来源页码、已报或调整状态与公式。
提取数据与模型输出只能作为初稿。必须回到上传原文核验每个数值、正负号、期间、调整、债务与现金分类、潜在股份及引用，并独立复算 FCFF、折现因子、终值、企业价值到股权价值桥、敏感度与反向 DCF。AI 可能混用 FCFE 与 FCFF、误把营运资本余额当变化额、错置现金流时点，或重复计算稀释。证据缺失时必须保持缺失，不能静默变成假设。
Include dated statements, normalization evidence, forecast drivers, debt, eligible cash, leases, diluted-share instruments, discount assumptions, and source pages.
请包含带日期的报表、正常化证据、预测驱动、债务、合格现金、租赁、稀释工具、折现假设与来源页码。
Open Stock Explained打开“一眼看懂这只股票”Questions raised by the completed valuation work order估值工单完成后常见的问题
FCFF keeps operating forecasts separate from borrowing choices and produces enterprise value. That suits BuildSure’s operating schedule. FCFE could be valid with an equity discount rate and explicit net borrowing, but mixing it with WACC or an enterprise-value bridge would mismatch claims.
本模型为什么使用 FCFF 而不是 FCFE？FCFF 把经营预测与借款选择分开，首先得到企业价值，适合 BuildSure 的经营排程。FCFE 也可以使用，但必须匹配股权必要回报并明确净借款；若再配 WACC 或企业价值桥，就会混淆请求权。
More operating receivables or inventory net of operating payables ties up cash, so the increase is a use of funds. Use the period change, not the ending balance. A decrease releases cash, but a temporary release should not automatically continue forever.
营运资本增加为什么要扣除？经营应收和存货扣除经营应付后增加，会占用现金，所以增加额是资金用途。应使用期间变化额，而不是期末余额。营运资本下降会释放现金，但暂时释放不能自动永久延续。
No. It is added back here only under the explicit assumption that it is nonrecurring and separate from ordinary occupancy. Repeated relocations, restructuring programs, or costs necessary to execute the strategy are economic costs. Preserve reported EBIT and reverse the adjustment if evidence changes.
2.0 搬迁费可以一直加回吗？不能。本例只在“该事项不重复且独立于正常场地成本”的明示假设下加回。反复搬迁、持续重组或执行战略所必需的成本都具有经济性。应保留已报 EBIT，并在证据变化时撤销调整。
In the constant-growth terminal formula, WACC − g is the denominator. If g equals or exceeds WACC, the formula ceases to produce a finite economically coherent value. Even a lower g must agree with mature margins, reinvestment, and long-run currency conditions.
永续增长率为什么必须低于 WACC？在恒定增长终值公式中，分母是 WACC − g。若 g 等于或超过 WACC，公式无法产生有限且具有经济含义的价值。即使 g 较低，也必须与成熟利润率、再投资和币种长期环境一致。
The equity claim may be spread across options, awards, convertibles, or contingent shares, subject to their terms and the selected method. Basic shares can overstate value per share when material dilution exists. Keep the valuation-date share bridge visible and avoid double counting instruments.
为什么使用稀释股数而不是基本股数？股权请求权可能分散到期权、奖励、可转债或或有股份，具体取决于条款与所选方法。存在重大潜在稀释时，基本股数会高估每股价值。应展示估值日股数桥，并避免重复计入工具。
Under the fictional equity value of 230 and all other fixed assumptions, it is the perpetual growth rate that makes the model equal that value. It does not reveal the market’s single true forecast: different combinations of near-term cash flow, WACC, terminal margin, and reinvestment can produce the same value.
反向 DCF 得到 2.82% 代表什么？在虚构股权价值 230 且其他假设不变时，它是让模型恰好等于该价值的永续增长率。它并不揭示市场唯一真实预测，因为短期现金流、WACC、终期利润率与再投资的不同组合可以产生同一价值。
Authoritative references for present value, adjustments, and shares现值、调整与股份口径的权威参考
BuildSure, its operating mix, financial statements, normalization adjustment, forecasts, WACC, tax, terminal growth, cash, debt, shares, hypothetical market equity value, and all sensitivity outputs are invented teaching inputs. The DCF is internally consistent under stated simplifications and describes no issuer or current market price.
DCF is assumption-sensitive and may be unsuitable for some businesses or stages. Accounting fair-value and impairment materials cited here support present-value concepts but do not prescribe this investor work order or guarantee market value. Review original disclosures, alternative methods, uncertainty, financing claims, dilution, and your own decision constraints. This is not individualized investment advice.
BuildSure、业务组合、财务报表、正常化调整、预测、WACC、税率、永续增长、现金、债务、股数、虚构市场股权价值与全部敏感度输出均为教学输入。DCF 只在明示简化条件下内部一致，不描述任何发行人或当前市场价格。
DCF 对假设高度敏感，也可能不适合某些业务或阶段。本文引用的会计公允价值与减值资料用于支持现值概念，并不规定本投资者工单，更不保证市场价值。应核对原始披露、替代方法、不确定性、融资请求权、稀释与个人决策约束。本文不构成个性化投资建议。